Finally the controversial telecom minister, A Raja, has been shown the door. For a newspaper like The Financial Express, which consistently and painstakingly brought to light, much ahead of other publications, his various misdeeds (generally referred to as the '2G spectrum scam'), it's surely a moment of some satisfaction. One is sure that the mood in the telecom industry is also celebratory, though propriety demands that such celebrations are held behind the curtains. The officials who either worked with him in the past or are currently working with him (with some exceptions, of course) may also be heaving a sigh of relief, for Raja was known to be vindictive to the ones who did not toe his line or upset him. And one is also sure that after its various flip-flops for more than three years, the Congress party may also be finally feeling a sense of relief.
However, this din of celebration should not make us feel that with the minister's exit the telecom sector has returned to normal. That another minister would come and it's business as usual. It's true that Raja has inflicted much damage on the sector, which otherwise is one of the country's showpieces of success of reforms. India is the world's second largest and fastest growing telecom market with more than 700 million subscribers, adding 15-20 million users every month; the tariffs are the lowest in the world and the world's best telecom companies operate here. Although the growth has largely come from the vibrant private sector operators, the government and the regulator have mostly provided the right enabling conditions. While the stints of BJP's Pramod Mahajan and Arun Shourie in Sanchar Bhavan brought policies that led to more competition and fall in tariffs, and the mobile becoming an aam aadmi's phone (though controversies were attached to them also), the UPA's first telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran tried to consolidate the gains further. Maran would be best remembered for removing the divide between local and STD calls by the BSNL's OneIndia plan. He also worked on making broadband a success and bringing forth the idea of sharing towers.
Sadly, the telecom reform lost momentum with Raja assuming charge in May 2007. The period was otherwise good for the telecom industry, with one of the big-ticket M&As having taken place a couple of months earlier (Vodafone acquiring Hutch's 67% stake for $12 billion). However, a couple of months later, Raja's move to allocate licences to several companies, most of them with no prior experience in telecom, in the most non-transparent manner, threw a major spanner in any work that needed to be done to take the sector to its next level of growth. The controversy was of such magnitude that the only thing Raja did during his entire term was to keep providing a feeble defence of his moves. Though he tries to take credit for breaking a supposed cartel of existing operators by bringing more operators, which led to decline in tariffs, thus benefiting consumers, such claims are laughable. The operators whom Raja gave licences are inconsequential players, with either no or skeletal services, and tariffs have dropped further only because of the competition amongst the incumbent operators.
The larger point is that the telecom sector today is slowly haemorrhaging. Valuations have dropped. Top line and bottom line of all companies have thinned, the market has become crowded and there are analysts who maintain that the country's telecom story is over. While the picture isn't that gloomy, it isn't very bright either. Just replacing Raja with any other minister would not do at this point in time. One needs a minister who is dynamic, reform-friendly, honest and has the trust of the industry. The country's telecom sector needs to move to a different trajectory altogether and that's where the next level of growth would come from. Here are some of the tasks the new telecom minister must do on a priority basis to make the sector return to some semblance of growth.
Clean up the 2G spectrum mess: The allocation of 2G spectrum has come to a near halt for more than two years now. While it's true that Trai submitted a set of recommendations to the government in May, it is fractious and lacks industry support. The first and foremost task for the new minister would be to sit with all the stakeholders, sort out issues and take decisions fast. Any such exercise should also accompany a thorough audit of how much spectrum we have, what is required to ensure future growth of the operators and whether the existing allocations are being optimally utilised by the operators.
Clear up all pending policy issues like mobile number portability, mobile virtual network operators, Internet telephony, etc: These are the issues on which recommendations have been with DoT for long and are stuck only because Raja had no interest in them. Frankly speaking, these issues are much simpler than conducting 3G auctions, but either the minister's disinterest or the government's has made them gather dust, because there's no scope for huge revenue gains. Technology-related issues should be expedited or else they lose relevance.
Reforming BSNL and MTNL: It is ironic that while the private sector operators are doing good business, even with rock-bottom tariffs, the performance of the two PSUs is deteriorating. There's enough potential in these two companies but what is needed is a political will to reform them. Disinvest or not but put in place a mechanism that ensures their smooth running.
Pull the sector out of the ad-hocism it is subjected to now: Brainstorm fast and put in place a new vision, some kind of telecom policy that catches up with the changes the sector has undergone in the last few years and spell out an agenda for the future. Dayanidhi Maran had set out to draft a new telecom policy but abandoned it mid-way. DoT needs to be empowered once again, taking all decisions through eGoMs is good but is often time-consuming.
rishi.raj@expressindia.com
FinancialExpress
http://news.in.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4582166
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